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Wheat, corn and HRW futures fell on February 27 after USDA's first 2025/26 planted area estimates came in above trade expectations for corn and wheat. Proposed US tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods and a stronger dollar added pressure, while Black Sea truce hopes weighed on wheat.
Larger US planted area forecasts point to heavier future supplies, and tariff threats and a firmer dollar reduce export competitiveness, pressuring grain prices.
blog.sizov.reportAndrey SizovFeb 28, 2025After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 53 past bullish report events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
