USDA's January 12 final report put the 2021 US corn yield at a record 177 bushels per acre and corn ending stocks at 1.54 billion bushels, up 47 million from December. Soybean yield was raised slightly to 51.4 bushels per acre, and USDA lowered Brazil and Argentina production estimates.
Ample US corn stocks cap domestic feed grain prices, while cuts to South American output support soybean meal and soybean prices.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.