
USDA reported September 1 US corn stocks at 1,995 million bushels, 258 million below its prior estimate, after lowering June 1 stocks by 205 million. Soybean stocks were 523 million bushels, 52 million below the previous estimate and 53 million below trade expectations.
Lower beginning stocks for 2020/21 tighten the US corn and soybean balance sheets, with analysts expecting firmer prices into next year. The soybean carryover loss also supports the export outlook to China.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.