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USDA's September quarterly stocks report showed old-crop corn stocks of 1.53 billion bushels, above the average trade guess of 1.337 billion. Wheat stocks also exceeded expectations, while soybean stocks of 316 million bushels were modestly below estimates.
A corn stocks surprise of this size signals more supply than the market priced in, weighing on corn and wheat prices. Tighter soybean stocks offer limited support.
farmprogress.comBen PotterSep 30, 2025After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
