Markets ended the week strong after USDA's August report cut corn yield 5 bushels per acre, reducing supply by 415 million bushels, and soybean yield 0.8 bushel per acre, reducing supply by 66 million bushels. USDA also cut Brazil's corn crop to 87 million tonnes, lowering exportable supplies by over 10 million tonnes.
Lower U.S. and Brazilian corn supplies and reduced export availability support corn prices, and the demand adjustments in USDA's balance sheet raise the risk of further tightening.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.