
Hog margins were flat through the first half of February with limited movement in hog and feed markets. USDA's February WASDE trimmed 2023 pork production by 45 million pounds to 27.435 billion pounds, still up 1.6% year over year.
Argentina's corn crop was cut 5 million tons to 47 million.
Lackluster Q1 pork demand and expected Q4 production growth point to pressure on hog prices, while the Argentine corn cut supports feed grain prices.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.