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USDA's Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook projects 2026 US pork production near 28 billion pounds, about 1.5% higher than 2025, rising to 28.3 billion pounds in 2027. Growth is driven mainly by heavier hog weights rather than larger slaughter numbers.
Expanding pork output from heavier hogs points to larger supplies and softer hog prices through 2026 and into 2027, which weighs on hog values.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.