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Analysts said crude oil prices are likely to stay volatile with an upward bias in the coming week as US-Iran negotiations and Strait of Hormuz shipment risks keep supply concerns elevated. Traders will watch US midterm results, API inventory data and OPEC+ policy.
MCX crude futures rose 1.4% last week, extending a fourth consecutive weekly gain.
Persistent geopolitical risk premium in crude raises diesel and energy input costs for feed producers and supports vegetable oil and biofuel-linked prices. Outcomes of US-Iran talks are the main swing factor for near-term direction.
energy.economictimes.indiatimes.comNov 1, 2026After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
