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Crude futures rose on October 31 after reports that the US planned military strikes on Venezuela and after the US and China agreed to extend a tariff truce. Gains were limited by a stronger dollar and weaker Chinese manufacturing PMI data, which fell to 49.0.
Venezuela supply risk and expected Russian crude declines from sanctions support energy prices, while weak Chinese demand and a strong dollar cap the rally.
barchart.comRich AsplundOct 31, 2025After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
