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Markets were jittery after Ukraine reportedly fired US and British long-range missiles into Russia and several nations temporarily closed embassies in Ukraine. Hawkish central bank signals trimmed rate cut bets for the BoE, ECB and Fed.
The USD gained support from the mix of geopolitical and macro signals.
Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict raises risk to Black Sea grain and oilseed logistics and can lift energy and fertiliser prices. A firmer USD weighs on dollar-priced commodities.
corpaycurrencyresearch.comPeter Dragicevich, Currency Strategist, APACNov 20, 2024After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, DXY moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
