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Oil prices rose about 9% in a week to over $66 a barrel after protests in Iran and Trump's threats to intervene on behalf of demonstrators facing a deadly crackdown. A large global supply glut still looms over the market.
The geopolitical risk premium is lifting crude, but the oversupply backdrop limits how far and how long prices can rise.
reuters.comRon BoussoJan 15, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dated Jan 15, it notes the roughly 9% weekly rally on Iran risk premium alongside a looming supply glut, so the -4.44% drop plausibly reflects unwinding of that premium as glut concerns reasserted themselves.
