
Oil surged about 7% in the April 29 session, with Brent closing at its highest level in four years, just under $120 a barrel. Energy was the biggest-moving S&P 500 sector, while European stocks fell and the dollar rose against the yen.
Higher crude lifts diesel and freight costs and feeds into biofuel and fertilizer economics, which tends to support feed-ingredient prices. The move also reinforces inflation and rate-hike worries that can strengthen the dollar.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.