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Speculators increased their net long positions on the U.S. dollar, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict boosted the greenback. Geopolitical uncertainty and worries over European growth have increased the currency's appeal.
A firmer dollar driven by safe-haven demand tends to weigh on dollar-priced commodities, while the same war has been lifting energy and grain prices.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.