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The euro fell after far-right gains in European Parliament elections prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap national election. Markets also faced a busy week with U.S. inflation data and a Federal Reserve decision due Wednesday, and a Bank of Japan meeting on Friday.
Political uncertainty in France raised risk premia on European assets and supported the dollar, which lowers dollar-denominated feed commodity prices for importers in other currencies. Feed buyers should watch euro strength as a factor in EU import costs.
reuters.comKaren Brettell, Alun JohnJun 10, 2024After 36 past bearish geopolitics events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -1.8% to -0.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
