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Rising geopolitical tension in eastern Ukraine and a sharp equity sell-off have hit high-beta currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone. Investors are favoring the dollar for liquidity, while the renminbi is firming.
Geopolitical risk aversion drives safe-haven dollar demand and can disrupt Black Sea grain and oilseed flows, adding volatility to feed commodity prices.
think.ing.comChris Turner, Francesco PesoleJan 25, 2022After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, DXY moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
