
The US Dollar Index rose to multi-day highs near 96.30 as Russia moved to recognize separatist regions in eastern Ukraine, raising fears of a near-term invasion. Safe-haven demand for the dollar strengthened amid rising risk aversion.
Escalating geopolitical risk supports the dollar and can lift risk premiums in grain and energy markets. The move is driven by anticipated conflict rather than a confirmed supply loss.
After 89 past bullish geopolitics events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (74% higher; middle half -0.0% to +1.0%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.