
Brent rose to $76.51 and WTI to $69.11 on Tuesday as supply-disruption risks from Venezuela, Africa and Iran fed expectations of a tighter market. The IEA warned of further supply losses, especially from Venezuela, where output has been cut sharply by its economic crisis.
Expected supply disruptions raise crude and diesel costs, which lift the cost of transport and processing for feed ingredients and support biofuel-linked vegetable oil prices.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.