Spending cuts contrast with expanded income tax exemption

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Aug 1, 2019Brazil's Larger-Than-Expected Rate Cut Is a Sign of More to Come+6.1%
• Jan 23, 2020With a Big Crop Expected, Brazil's Soybean Harvest Is Slow+0.7%
• Mar 19, 2020Emerging Markets Are in the Fastest Collapse in a Generation - Bloomberg-1.1%
• Oct 9, 2023Latam FX Talking: Carry trade unwind recommends caution | ING THINK-1.9%
• Jun 25, 2024Lula’s spending plans turn heat on Brazilian markets+3.4%

After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.

• Jun 25, 2024Lula’s spending plans turn heat on Brazilian markets-1.8%
• Apr 26, 2022PBOC seeks to calm markets with reserve ratio cut - Asia Times-2.5%
• Dec 18, 2024Brazil's real hits record low as markets eye govt spending | Reuters+1.6%
• Sep 29, 2023China Brief 97 | China's recovery stalls, Canada-India tensions and trade, and a change to China Brief Canada West FoundationCanada West Foundation-4.6%
• Nov 28, 2024BRL: Real hits four year low on fiscal concerns – ING — Elev8-1.3%

After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Oct 9, 2018IMF cuts world economic growth forecasts on tariff war, emerging market strains+4.1%
• Dec 5, 2022Recession fears spur wheat cuts – The Seam-0.2%
• Mar 1, 20202020 Merchandising Outlook: Experts Share Advice in a Time of… |…+1.7%
• Jul 27, 2024Chinese yuan hits eight-month low with missed inflation data and US dollar rebound | FX Blue-1.0%
• Jun 20, 2022Selling trend picks up in commodity markets-3.7%