◂ Event Timeline

Mar 19, 2020MACROBrazil

Emerging Markets Are in the Fastest Collapse in a Generation

Brazilian stock markets triggered circuit breakers six times in eight days as the coronavirus crisis deepened. The real fell 2% on March 9 when oil crashed, then 3.7% and 3.2% in subsequent sessions.

WHY IT MATTERS

A weaker real raises the local cost of imported inputs and adds inflation pressure on Brazilian feed and livestock buyers. The currency move also shifts export competitiveness for Brazilian agricultural commodities.

AFFECTSBrazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲

SOURCE
bloomberg.comJulia Leite, Aline OyamadaMar 19, 2020

Price reaction & history

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.7%5d -1.1%20d +2.8%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

Jun 7, 2018Skittishness hits emerging markets, and the Fed's getting the blame-2.8%
Aug 23, 2018Here’s how Jackson Hole could impact the dollar, bonds and emerging markets - MarketWatch+1.2%
Jun 6, 2018El-Erian Warns Brazil May Be Next Emerging-Market Domino to Fall - Bloomberg-2.7%
Mar 19, 2020Why the U.S. dollar’s relentless rally is causing pain for emerging markets - MarketWatch-1.1%
Mar 10, 2022EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX falls as dollar gains on inflation data; rouble steadies - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org+2.3%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) USDBRL · GP ▸

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