Latam FX Talking: Carry trade unwind recommends caution

After 456 past macro events, Soybeans moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.6%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Jun 17, 2019FX Talking: The beginning of the end of the dollar’s rally | reports | ING THINK+0.7%
• Apr 17, 2024FX Daily: The big unwinding | articles | ING THINK+2.0%
• Jan 13, 2025FX Talking: Trump’s currency, your problem | bundles | ING THINK+2.0%
• Nov 3, 2023FX: Dollar to defy seasonal trends | articles | ING THINK+1.8%
• May 8, 2019EM FX: Floating in a sea of red | articles | ING THINK+0.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Apr 17, 2024FX Daily: The big unwinding | articles | ING THINK-0.3%
• Jun 13, 2022FX Talking: Summer of discontent keeps dollar in demand | reports | ING THINK+1.0%
• Jan 13, 2025FX Talking: Trump’s currency, your problem | bundles | ING THINK-0.3%
• Mar 31, 2022FX: Time to reconnect with rates and fundamentals | articles | ING THINK+0.8%
• Mar 13, 2020FX daily: Dislocation, dislocation, dislocation | articles | ING THINK+3.8%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Feb 14, 2025Latam FX Talking: Don’t trust the rally | ING THINK-1.1%
• Apr 17, 2024FX Daily: The big unwinding | articles | ING THINK-1.4%
• Nov 16, 2022Latam FX Outlook 2023: Too good to be true? | articles | ING THINK+0.5%
• Feb 9, 2022Calmer Treasury yields support Latam FX; Real drops on inflation worries-1.7%
• Sep 13, 2022Latam FX slump as hot U.S. inflation sends dollar soaring | Financial Post+0.4%