
CBOT soybean futures ended mixed on June 30 after USDA quarterly stocks showed June 1 soybean stocks at 1.008 billion bushels, above analyst expectations of 980 million. USDA also put 2025 soybean plantings at 83.4 million acres, slightly below March intentions.
Stocks above expectations are bearish for nearby soybeans, while lower acreage supports deferred prices. Soymeal hit a life-of-contract low before bouncing, reflecting pressure from crush supply.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.