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Karen Braun's column previews the USDA quarterly stocks report due Thursday, which will set the 2020-21 ending stocks for US corn and soybeans. Analysts expected corn stocks at eight-year lows and soybeans at seven-year lows.
The column notes recent stocks reports have produced large revisions and sharp price reactions.
Stocks figures at multiyear lows point to tight old-crop supply, but large revisions could cause sharp price moves in either direction. Buyers should watch the report for changes to the expected tightness.
ctrmcenter.comPatrick ReamesSep 29, 2021After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
