
USDA's May WASDE raised 2019/20 corn ending stocks by six million bushels to 2.098 billion, below the trade average of 2.22 billion. The 2020/21 corn carryout was estimated at 3.31 billion bushels versus a trade guess of 3.42 billion, and soybean old-crop stocks were lifted to 580 million bushels.
A corn carryout below trade expectations gives limited support to futures, but the still-large new-crop stocks keep the outlook bearish, with ethanol demand assumptions a possible source of further downward revision.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.