Brent and WTI crude rose on Friday, with Brent up about 2% to $117.15 and WTI up about 1.75% to $103.79, heading for monthly gains of 13% and 15%. A tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by explosive devices from a small boat, as US-Iran tensions raised supply concerns.
Higher crude raises diesel and fertilizer costs and supports biofuel demand, which can lift soybean oil and corn prices. Supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz keeps energy-driven feed and freight costs elevated.
After 654 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +2.0% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.6% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 624 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.2% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 247 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -3.6% to +9.2%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 109 past bullish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.