CBOT December soybean oil futures rose 7.22% over three sessions through Sept. 1 after EPA granted 29 small-refinery exemptions totaling 1.76 billion RINs.
EPA also said it intends to propose reallocating 100% of the difference between projected and actual 2025 exempted volumes into 2026 and 2027 obligations.
Reallocation preserves future biofuel demand for soybean oil, supporting feedstock prices and soybean crush margins, which lifts meal supply and offers a partial offset in meal values.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 27 past neutral policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -4.3% to +2.6%), and -4.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
EPA granted small refinery exemptions but plans to reallocate 100% of exempted volumes into 2026-27 RVOs, lifting biofuel feedstock demand outlook and driving December soyoil up about 7% over three sessions.