
Datagro Grãos projects Brazil's 2024/25 soybean area rising for an 18th straight year, to 46.89 million hectares, up 1.5%. Expected productivity is 3,554 kg/ha, for potential output of 166.6 million tonnes, 12% above the revised 2023/24 crop.
Corn area for the first harvest is forecast to decline.
A larger Brazilian soybean crop adds to export supply and is bearish for soybean meal and oil, while lower corn area is mildly supportive for corn prices.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.