
COCERAL forecasts the EU27+UK 2026 grain harvest at 279 million tonnes, down 8 million from its July estimate and 28.4 million (9.2%) below 2025. Wheat excluding durum is cut to 137.5 million tonnes, mainly on weaker German and Polish crops, and maize is cut to 48.6 million tonnes after heat and drought during pollination.
A smaller EU crop, especially lower maize and barley, tightens European feed grain supply and supports import demand and prices for corn, barley and wheat.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.