
Brazil's IBGE September estimate puts the 2021 harvest of cereals, legumes and oilseeds at 250.9 million tonnes, 1.3% below 2020's record and the sixth straight monthly decline. The survey attributes the cut mainly to low rainfall and frosts that hit second-crop corn in Parana, Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul.
A shrinking Brazilian safrinha corn crop tightens export supplies and supports corn and soymeal-linked feed prices.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.