
IBGE's September survey estimates Brazil's 2019 grain crop at a record 240.7 million metric tons, up 6.3% from 2018. Corn output is seen at a record 100.2 million tons, while rice and soybean output fell.
A record Brazilian corn crop adds exportable supply and pressures corn prices, while lower soybean output is a modest supportive factor for soy complex prices.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.