A weekly outlook covers USDA September 1 grain stocks, which put old-crop soybean stocks at 301 million bushels, 44 million below the USDA forecast and 37 million below trade estimates. The 2016 soybean crop estimate was trimmed to 4,296 million bushels.
Old-crop corn stocks were also reported, 55 million bushels below forecast.
Stocks below expectations tighten soybean supply for the 2017-18 marketing year and support soybean prices and soybean meal costs for feed users.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.