
Conab's eighth survey of the 2019/20 harvest put total Brazilian grain output at 250.9 million tonnes, down 0.4% on the prior estimate because of drought in Rio Grande do Sul. Soybean output was estimated at 120.3 million tonnes, and second-crop corn at 75.9 million tonnes.
The official downward revision removes some export supply from the market, which is mildly supportive for corn, while soybean output remains large and cushions soy prices.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.