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COCERAL's first 2026 estimate forecasts European grain and oilseed production of 296.7 million tonnes, down from 306.6 million in 2025, covering the EU and UK. Wheat (excluding durum) is forecast at 143.9 million tonnes versus 147.5 million, as yields return to more normal levels after 2025's record.
Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture.
A smaller European harvest tightens export availability and supports wheat and barley prices, though favourable soil moisture limits how far the cut may go.
tridge.comVictor LangatJan 27, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
