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farmdoc daily reports that Conab expects Brazilian farmers to plant more soybeans and less corn in 2023/24, because corn prices are unattractive relative to soybeans. El Nino has also worsened the corn outlook, particularly through delayed first corn planting in Rio Grande do Sul.
A shift from corn to soybean area in Brazil lowers expected corn supply and raises soybean supply, which is supportive for corn and bearish for soybeans. The net effect depends on how El Nino affects yields in each crop.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoOct 18, 2023After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
