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USDA cut its 2023 national average corn yield to 173.0 bushels per acre from 173.8 and soybean yield to 49.6 from 50.1 in the October report. The soybean price reaction was much larger than corn's, which remained adequately supplied.
Lower USDA yield estimates reduce available supply, supporting soybean and meal prices more than corn, which stays comparatively cheap for feed buyers.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoOct 17, 2023After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
