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The USDA's Sept. 30 Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed U.S. corn stocks at 2.11 billion bushels as of Sept.
1, well below trade expectations of 2.428 billion, and soybean stocks at 913 million bushels versus an expected 982 million. Soybean and corn futures rallied on the data, with soybeans up about 20 cents and Dec. corn up about 10 cents.
Tighter-than-expected old-crop stocks reduce the carryin supply for 2019/20, supporting feed grain and soymeal prices ahead of the October WASDE. Lower crude oil prices on the day were a minor offset.
agriculture.comSep 30, 2019After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
USDA Sept 30 Grain Stocks report was bullish versus expectations and sparked the soybean complex rally on the move date.
