
Private broker INTL FCStone raised its Brazil soybean crop forecast to a record 111.6 million tons from 109.07 million, and kept its corn forecast at a record 93.3 million tons. It expects Brazilian corn exports of 28 million tons this season, up from 18.9 million last season.
The safrinha (second-crop) corn yield still depends on more humidity.
Record Brazilian soybean and corn output and much larger corn exports add to global supply and pressure export prices. Feed buyers may find Brazilian origin cheaper, though safrinha moisture remains a risk.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.