Preliminary USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum projections for 2024-25 show US soybean oil production rising 4.4% to a record, with consumption up 3.7%. Ending stocks are forecast to reach their largest level in three years, and the average soyoil price is forecast to fall.
Rising production and building stocks point to a looser soybean oil balance and lower prices ahead. The projection shows renewable diesel demand growth is already largely reflected in supply plans.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.