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The latest CPC seasonal drought outlook projects no drought development in the core Corn Belt through August. Drought could still develop in parts of the northwestern Corn Belt, including Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.
Drought is forecast to persist and expand across Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas, key Hard Red Winter and spring wheat areas.
A favorable Corn Belt outlook limits weather premium in corn and soybeans, while expected Plains drought supports HRW and spring wheat prices.
syngenta.caMay 25, 2026After 322 past bullish weather events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, CORN moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, SOY moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
