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A European Commission short-term outlook, published October 3, forecasts 2018 EU cereal output at 284.3 million tonnes, 8% below the five-year average. Wheat harvest fell most, with a forecast of 129 million tonnes after summer drought.
EU cereal prices peaked in August, with wheat near €50 per tonne and barley near €60 per tonne.
Reduced EU grain supply after drought supports wheat and barley values and may increase EU import demand, tightening feed grain markets.
world-grain.comHolly Demaree-SaddlerOct 4, 2018After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
