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FranceAgriMer rated 73% of French soft wheat in good or excellent condition as of May 16, down from 82% a week earlier. Record May temperatures in parts of France are further drying out crops.
Lower French wheat condition raises the risk of a smaller EU crop, which supports wheat futures and export prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.