
NOAA gives an 80 percent chance that La Niña will continue through winter. Ohio River Forecast Center hydrometeorologist Link Crawford expects colder-than-normal temperatures and persistence into spring, possibly through April or May.
Expected cold and persistent La Niña conditions add weather risk for US winter wheat and the spring planting outlook, which supports grain prices modestly.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.