
NOAA's seasonal drought outlook through October calls for only limited drought east of the Rockies, in sharp contrast to the widespread dryness of fall 2024. The U.S. corn crop was rated 74% good to excellent for the week ending July 20, its highest for that date since 2016.
Expected drought-free conditions in the main crop areas point to ample supplies and reduce weather-driven price support for corn and soybeans.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.