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The US Climate Prediction Center says a brief La Niña is favored in fall and early winter 2025-26 before a return to ENSO-neutral, with neutral most likely through August-October at 56%. Forecasters expect a drier US Southern Plains winter and somewhat more favourable conditions for central/northern Brazil and Argentina.
Expected favourable South American moisture supports larger planting prospects and bearish pressure on soybeans and corn, while a drier US Plains winter could support HRW wheat.
gmanetwork.comReutersAug 14, 2025After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
