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The US Climate Prediction Center sees a 75% chance of La Niña transitioning to neutral ENSO by early 2026, with El Niño possible later in the year. Forecasters say there are no widespread drought conditions in major global crop areas and a wetter central US Plains later in summer could benefit HRW wheat, corn and soybeans.
A weak La Niña fading toward neutral reduces near-term drought risk for major crops, which tends to weigh on weather premium in grain prices.
reuters.comJan 8, 2026After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
