
Corn, soybeans and wheat all ended lower on March 20, 2017 after failing to hold early gains. Hard red winter wheat was pressured as rain was forecast for key Plains production areas.
CFTC data showed hedge funds turning bearish, with funds net short corn and reducing soybean longs.
Forecast rain in the Plains eases drought concerns for HRW wheat, and fund selling adds downward pressure on prices. Feed buyers may see softer corn, soybean and wheat values in the near term.
After 70 past bearish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and -1.1% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Same-day report: grains failed to hold early gains, rain forecast for Plains pressured wheat, and funds turned bearish, directly explaining the drop.