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Weather remains a key market driver for the US and South America, with a building La Niña drawing attention but possibly weaker than historical events given wet conditions in Argentina. US yields have run above expectations, and farmers have been selling soybeans while holding corn.
Harvest and fall fieldwork delays may affect spring work.
Yields above expectations and farmer selling of soybeans add supply pressure, while uncertainty over La Niña and fieldwork delays provide some weather risk premium.
leadertelegram.comKarl SetzerNov 6, 2017After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
