
Chicago soybean futures fell on Monday to their lowest level since October 2020 after forecasts of rain in the US crop belt eased concerns about hot, dry weather. Wheat gained on US export inspections and poor EU crop conditions, while corn was roughly steady.
Favourable US weather supports larger expected soybean and corn supplies, pressuring soy prices, while EU crop problems give wheat some upward support.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.