
As of mid-March 2022, USDA data showed 73% of US winter wheat area in drought, almost triple the level a year earlier. Durum wheat drought coverage was 80%, while row crops had relatively good moisture.
Widespread drought in winter wheat areas threatens HRW output at a time of tight world wheat supply, supporting wheat prices and feed wheat costs.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.