Illinois farmers report better-than-expected corn and soybean yields despite a June flash drought covering 60% of the state. Timely rains during pollination and in early August helped, with yields about 5% to 10% below their best-ever levels.
Yields better than feared limit the supply tightening from drought, which is bearish for corn and soybean prices.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.