
Strategie Grains forecasts the EU soft wheat harvest about 10 percent smaller this year, with northern Europe hit hardest. German winter wheat is expected to fall 19.9 percent, and Germany may switch from wheat exporter to importer, especially for animal feed wheat.
Lower EU exportable supply shifts demand toward Black Sea, Russian, Ukrainian and US wheat, supporting world wheat prices and feed wheat costs for buyers.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.